The markets are anxious. There's every sign that the world's
investors have grown nervous about the continued ability of the
American consumer to keep the economy perking along. Companies that
sell big-ticket items are floundering: General Motors reported a
$1.1 billion quarterly loss yesterday. Conversely, drug and utility
stocks are doing all right; companies that rely on nondiscretionary
spending remain a safe bet.
Part of the problem is that gas prices are siphoning off a bigger
share than usual of Americans' incomes. But the bigger problem is
that Americans' incomes are stuck or even in mild decline. Though
the economy grew by 4.4 percent last year and added 2.2 million
jobs, real wages fell by 0.9 percent. The last time U.S. wages fell
was in the recession year of 1991. Now they're falling in the middle
of a recovery.
Time was when wage increases tracked gains in productivity and
profitability -- but that time is long gone. Since 2001 yearly
productivity growth has averaged 4.1 percent, while wages and
benefits have grown on average by just 1.5 percent. No longer does a
rising tide, as John Kennedy famously pronounced, lift all boats. We
are now in the 11th quarter of the current recovery.